Kemi Badenoch is winning back some voters. The Conservatives are not there yet

The Tory leader’s personal standing has improved markedly over the past year and more Britons are willing to consider voting Conservative. But new YouGov research finds only one in five believes the party is ready to govern again.

Kemi Badenoch has spent much of the past year improving her standing with the British public. The more difficult task is persuading voters that the Conservative Party deserves the same reconsideration.

New YouGov research ahead of the Conservative Party conference finds that 28 per cent of Britons would now consider voting Conservative at a future election, six points higher than a year ago and the highest level recorded by the pollster since Badenoch became leader in November 2024.

Yet that improvement has so far produced only a modest increase in actual voting intention. Across September, the Conservatives averaged 14 per cent in YouGov polling, two points above their low point last year. YouGov

It leaves the Conservatives in an unusual position. Badenoch has become considerably more competitive personally and some of the party's most damaging ratings have improved. But a majority of voters still regard the Conservatives as out of touch and untrustworthy, and 59 per cent say they are not ready to return to government. YouGov

Badenoch's recovery

The change in perceptions of Badenoch herself is substantial.

YouGov finds Britons almost evenly divided over her performance as Conservative leader, with 36 per cent saying she is doing well and 35 per cent badly.

A year ago the balance was considerably less favourable. Her net job performance rating has improved by 39 points over the past 12 months to plus one. Her net favourability rating has risen by 20 points to minus 15. YouGov

That does not mean she has won over the country.

Some 47 per cent still hold an unfavourable opinion of Badenoch compared with 32 per cent who view her favourably. Half of Britons say she does not look like a prime minister in waiting, against 26 per cent who believe she does. YouGov

But the direction of travel over the longer period is unmistakable.

YouGov's July polling had already found Badenoch recording the strongest favourability score for a Conservative leader in more than five years. YouGov

Strong, intelligent and, to her critics, abrasive

YouGov also asked voters to describe Badenoch in three words, producing a more revealing picture of why she attracts both admiration and hostility.

Forty per cent used at least one negative description, compared with 31 per cent who included something positive.

The two most common compliments were “strong” and “intelligent”, each appearing in seven per cent of responses. Articulate, confident and determined also featured among the favourable descriptions.

Her critics were more likely to focus on personality as well as performance. Four per cent used terms such as “nasty” or “mean”, four per cent described her as useless, three per cent as rude and three per cent as not very good. YouGov

That sharpness may partly explain why Badenoch has made greater progress among voters on the political right.

Among people who voted Conservative in 2024, 62 per cent used at least one positive term to describe her. Almost half of 2024 Reform voters, 48 per cent, also offered a favourable description, although 34 per cent used something negative. YouGov

There remains another problem for a politician approaching two years as opposition leader: recognition.

Twenty nine per cent of Britons were unable to offer a meaningful three word description. Twenty per cent essentially answered that they did not know, while nine per cent responded with some variation of “who?”. YouGov

The party remains Badenoch's bigger problem

The Conservative brand is proving more difficult to rehabilitate than its leader.

YouGov finds 54 per cent regard the party as out of touch and 53 per cent as untrustworthy. Some 59 per cent believe it serves its own interests and 58 per cent think it cares only about a select few.

Voters are also more likely to describe the Conservatives as incompetent than competent, by 47 per cent to 23 per cent, and weak rather than strong, by 44 per cent to 15 per cent. YouGov

There are, however, signs of improvement.

Since shortly before Badenoch became leader, the proportion seeing the Conservatives as moderate has risen nine points. The share believing the party has a clear sense of purpose is seven points higher, while perceptions of competence have improved by six points. The proportions describing the party as in touch and strong have each risen by five points. YouGov

Those changes matter because the Conservatives are attempting to rebuild after their 2024 general election defeat while competing for voters who subsequently moved towards Reform UK.

But the research suggests those voters have not yet been convinced that the Conservative Party itself has changed sufficiently. Reform voters tend to regard the Tories as weak, out of touch, untrustworthy and unclear about what they stand for, even as many take a more favourable view of Badenoch personally. YouGov

Ready to govern?

Ultimately, an opposition party has to pass a more demanding test than whether voters have started thinking better of its leader.

It has to look like a government.

On that measure, the Conservatives still have considerable ground to recover.

Twenty per cent of Britons now say the party is ready for government, up from 11 per cent last September. But 59 per cent say it is not. YouGov

The improvement should not be dismissed. Neither should the scale of what remains.

Badenoch appears to have succeeded in persuading a growing number of voters to reconsider her. The Conservatives' next challenge is turning that personal recovery into confidence in the party she leads.

For a party conference seeking evidence that the long road back has begun, YouGov provides some of it. It also provides a fairly stark measure of how much further there is to travel.