Burnham's popularity slips as voters deliver an early warning to Labour's new era

The political goodwill that followed Andy Burnham's return to Westminster appears to be proving short lived.

New polling by YouGov suggests the man widely expected to become Labour's next leader is already encountering the realities of national scrutiny, with more Britons now holding an unfavourable view of Burnham than at any point since YouGov began tracking his ratings.

The survey, conducted in the days following Sir Keir Starmer's resignation, found that 43% of Britons now view Burnham unfavourably, while 32% hold a favourable opinion. It marks the weakest personal rating yet recorded for the former Mayor of Greater Manchester and represents a reminder that succeeding a departing Prime Minister is rarely the same as winning over the country.

The figures come at a pivotal moment for Labour.

Having removed one leader in the hope of resetting its fortunes, the party is now preparing to unite behind another. Yet Burnham begins that task with significant challenges, not least persuading voters who know relatively little about him beyond his years in Manchester.

The polling reveals a more nuanced picture than the headline figures alone suggest.

Burnham continues to score positively on several leadership qualities. More people describe him as likeable than dislikeable, while he is also regarded as competent, strong and decisive by larger numbers than those who disagree.

Those are qualities any aspiring Prime Minister would welcome.

The difficulty lies elsewhere.

When asked about trustworthiness, Britons are more likely to describe Burnham as untrustworthy than trustworthy, while opinion on whether he is a principled politician is now finely balanced. Both measures have deteriorated since May, suggesting the heightened attention surrounding Labour's leadership crisis has not worked entirely in his favour.

Perhaps more striking is how many voters have yet to form a settled view.

Depending on the question, between 38% and 54% of respondents answered "don't know", leaving Burnham with considerable room either to strengthen or weaken his standing over the coming months.

For Labour, that uncertainty presents both an opportunity and a risk.

The party can reasonably argue that Burnham has yet to introduce himself fully to the electorate. Equally, opponents will recognise that first impressions are often difficult to reverse once they harden into public opinion.

There is, however, one important source of encouragement for Labour.

Among those who voted Labour in 2024, Burnham remains comfortably popular, suggesting he has so far retained the confidence of the party's own electoral coalition. Liberal Democrat and Green supporters also tend to view him more positively than negatively, indicating that his appeal extends beyond Labour's traditional base.

Whether that proves sufficient to rebuild Labour's national standing is another question entirely.

Burnham also benefits from an obvious political comparison.

Despite his own declining ratings, the polling suggests voters still view him more favourably than his predecessor across most leadership measures. After the turbulence that brought Starmer's premiership to an end, Labour will hope that is enough to give its new leader time to establish himself.

Yet politics rarely allows lengthy grace periods.

Burnham's early challenge will be to convert personal familiarity into public confidence while demonstrating that Labour's change of leadership represents more than a change of personality.

The polling suggests many voters have yet to reach a verdict.

For Burnham, that uncertainty may be his greatest opportunity. It may also prove to be his greatest test.